Experts from the real estate industry sound the alarm: there will be a shortage of over 600,000 apartments
21/02/2024 · Autor: Marius Grumbt
According to forecasts by the so-called Immobilienweisen, the German government will miss its housing construction target by an even greater margin in future. The published spring report emphasizes that the crisis in residential construction is deeper than the current building completion and building permit figures show.
Housing construction is still benefiting from projects that were started before the significant interest rate hikes. In view of the sharp decline in building permits and taking construction times into account, completions are expected to fall to 150,000 per year. The 400,000 mark targeted by the German government is therefore a distant prospect. According to estimates, this mark was once again clearly missed in 2023 with around 270,000. Experts warn that the construction of new apartments is not profitable given the current interest rate levels, building land prices, construction costs and rents.
There is already a shortage of more than 600,000 apartments.
The German Property Federation (ZIA), which presented the report to Federal Building Minister Klara Geywitz, warns of a social debacle. The housing shortage in Germany is already acute. This figure is expected to rise to 720,000 by next year, and even to 830,000 by 2027. ZIA President Andreas Mattner described the experts' analysis not only as a wake-up call, but in some points even as a real siren alarm.
The main reason for this development is the rise in interest rates since spring 2022. According to Harald Simons, one of the real estate experts, this has made practically all residential construction projects uneconomical almost overnight, which has led to a virtual standstill in residential construction. The expert described the situation as a deep crisis in residential construction. According to the German Property Federation (ZIA), a 'black zero' for new residential developments would only be achieved with an average rent of EUR 21 per square meter, which is not realistic according to ZIA President Mattner. He emphasized that those who build anyway are facing bankruptcy.
Source: Spiegel online
Certainly, higher interest rates and construction costs are reasons for the crisis in the construction industry, as is the purchasing behaviour of property developers and project developers in the 'good times', who have opted for ever more. In my opinion, however, politicians are just as much to blame for the misery, having massively damaged an entire sector of the economy for years with their bureaucratic overregulation. But after the experiences in almost all sectors, whether education, transport, industry or defense, it was ultimately only a matter of time before the construction industry was also hit.
Although the shortage will certainly ultimately have a positive effect for landlords through higher rents, the social question of affordable housing naturally arises on the other side. However, this housing crisis will definitely not be socially acceptable.